Andreas Beger

Data/political scientist

Research

Google Scholar profile
ORCiD profile

Papers, conferences, pre-prints, etc.

* = not peer-reviewed

Other manuscripts

Unpublished papers that I am not further working on:

2016. “Precision-recall curves”.

  • PDF
  • http://ssrn.com/abstract=2765419
  • For rare outcomes (*cough*, a lot of IR), ROC curves and the area under them are not a great measure of model fit. Look at (the area under) precision-recall curves as well.

2012. “Using front lines to predict deaths in the Bosnian civil war”.

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  • To be useful for forecasting and prediction, a statistical model needs to be feasible given the data it requires. This paper examines the relationship between front lines and other, time-invariant variables, and killings during the Bosnian civil war from 1992 to 1995. It uses a Bayesian spatial count model to estimate and compare model fit to other, more established conflict models. One of the dissertation papers.

2012. “Explaining and predicting interstate war deaths”.

  • PDF, http://ssrn.com/abstract=2765421
  • This paper is about predicting interstate war battle deaths. Data on 89 interstate wars between 1815 and 1991 is used to estimate a truncated regression model that provides the basis for out-of sample forecasts for two other wars. Also a dissertation paper.

2012. “Predicting the intensity and location of violence in war”.

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  • My three-papers-wrapped-together Ph.D. dissertation.

2008. “Simulating the Effects of Selection Bias in the Minorities at Risk Project”.

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  • How much of a problem is it that the Minority at Risk project collects information only for ethnic groups that are “at risk”, i.e. selection on the dependent variable?